🌨️ Is El Niño About to Give SoCal Skiers the Winter We’ve Been Waiting For?

Hey Ski Fam,

Something big is brewing in the Pacific. And if you ski Mammoth, Big Bear or Mountain High, you need to know about it. 🌊❄️

NOAA says El Niño is strengthening. It now sees a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the fall and winter of 2026–27.

Yep, that got my attention. 😳 But before somebody runs into the garage, hugs their powder skis and books every weekend through March, I need to add one big warning.

El Niño does NOT promise us a huge snow year. It gives us a reason to watch the Pacific very closely. And after some lean SoCal winters, I’ll take that.

🌊 So What the Heck Is Happening?

El Niño starts thousands of miles from Big Bear. Warm water builds across the tropical Pacific, and that can change winds and storm tracks across North America.

NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory on August 13 and said the event had strengthened over the past month. NOAA also says there is a 69% chance that one measure of this El Niño reaches a level beyond previous events in its record dating to 1950 during October through December.

That is the science. Here is my skier translation: The Pacific has my full attention. 👀

But El Niño is like hearing your favorite band is coming to California. Great news. We still don’t know if they are playing in your town.

❄️ Does This Mean Big Bear Gets Buried?

Nope.

A strong El Niño does not mean Snow Summit gets six feet, Mountain High gets powder every Friday night or Mammoth gets buried from Thanksgiving through Easter.

For our ski hills, I’ll be watching four things:

• Storm track: Do storms actually reach us?

• Snow level: Does that water fall as snow or rain?

• Temperature: Are the storms cold enough?

• Timing: When do the best storms arrive?

That snow level is huge. A wet winter in Los Angeles can still be a lousy ski winter, because rain at 7,000 feet does not care how excited I am about El Niño. 😂

This is why I won’t call an epic winter in August. I want to see real storms coming across the Pacific first.

🏔️ While We Wait, the Mountains Are Still Busy

Here is the funny part. While we’re staring at the ocean and dreaming about powder, our mountains are basically saying, “Guys, we’re still open. Come play.” 😂

At Bear Mountain, the Kids Adventure Race runs August 28–30. Kids ages 6–14 team up for a 3.5-to-5-mile course with 12–15 obstacles. They bike, run, get wet and work together to reach the finish.

Over at Snow Valley, MTB Camp runs August 29–30 for kids ages 7–17. It includes bike checks, skills work, trail rides, games and coaching, with another camp scheduled for September 12–13.

The Southwest Downhill Series also hits Snow Valley August 29–30. Online registration closes tonight, August 27, at 8 PM PDT, but day-of registration is scheduled to be available. Apparently gravity does not take summers off. 🚵‍♂️💨

Then Big Bear Lake Oktoberfest starts September 12 and runs on select dates through November 8. That gives us food, music, mountain air and perhaps some very early après-ski training. 🥨😂

🚵 Mammoth Isn’t Sleeping Either

Mammoth has plenty happening while we wait for winter.

Mammoth Rock N Rye runs September 4–6 in The Village, with free live music and whiskey tastings available for purchase. Then the Mammoth Gran Fondo rolls out September 12, with 42-, 70- and 102-mile bike routes through the Eastern Sierra.

Later in the month, Mammoth TUFF runs September 18–20, with gravel rides and a beer mile. Mammoth Trailfest follows September 24–27, with races ranging from a kids’ 1K all the way to a 50K.

If your idea of getting your ski legs ready involves riding 102 miles or running a 50K, you and I may define “warm-up” a little differently. 😂

📅 My Mountain Game Plan

If I were looking at the calendar today, I’d keep it simple. Pick the weekend that sounds like your kind of fun, click through for the details and get yourself back into the mountains. 🏔️

• Aug. 28–30: Kids Adventure Race — Bear Mountain — Kids ages 6–14 bike, run and tackle mountain obstacles in teams of two.

• Aug. 29–30: Snow Valley MTB Camp — Two days of riding and skills work for kids ages 7–17. 🚵

• Aug. 29–30: Southwest Downhill Series — Snow Valley — USA Cycling-sanctioned downhill racing, with day-of registration available.

• Sept. 4–6: Mammoth Rock N Rye — Three days of free live music in The Village, plus whiskey tastings for purchase. 🎸

• Sept. 12: Mammoth Gran Fondo — A huge Eastern Sierra cycling day with several route options and some pretty darn good views. 🚴

• Sept. 18–20: Mammoth TUFF — Gravel riding, three distance choices and a beer mile in The Village.

• Sept. 24–27: Mammoth Trailfest — Four days of mountain running, including a 50K, 26K, 10K and Kids 1K. 🏃‍♀️

You don’t need to do all of that unless your legs, wallet and spouse have signed the proper paperwork. 😂 Pick one weekend. Get back into the mountains. Have some fun.

Winter will be here soon enough. ❄️

🎿 What I’m Doing Right Now

I am hopeful about this winter. Very hopeful. But I’m not betting on snow that has not fallen.

SoCal skiers have jobs, kids, traffic, hotel bills and that wonderful tradition of leaving home at an hour when normal people are asleep. A bad ski call can mean hours in traffic for thin snow and a very expensive cheeseburger.

That is why good information matters so much to our SoCal ski crowd. We want good snow, good value and enough solid information to know when the drive is actually worth it.

So my plan is simple. Tune the skis, check the boots and start getting those legs back. Keep a few winter weekends open, then wait for real storms before making the call.

Get ready early. Make the ski call late.

❓10 Fast El Niño FAQs

1. Is El Niño happening?
Yes. NOAA has an El Niño Advisory in effect.

2. Could it become very strong?
Yes. NOAA currently puts the chance above 90%.

3. Does that guarantee a huge ski season?
No. Not even close.

4. Does El Niño guarantee more California snow?
No. Individual storms still have to take the right path and stay cold enough.

5. Will Big Bear get buried?
Nobody can say yet.

6. What about Mountain High?
Same answer. We need the right storms and cold air.

7. Should I book every ski weekend now?
I wouldn’t. Flexibility is gold for SoCal skiers.

8. What matters most once winter starts?
Storm track, snow level and actual resort conditions.

9. When should I start watching forecasts closely?
When individual winter storms get close enough for short-range forecasts to become useful.

10. Should I be excited?
Absolutely. Just keep one ski boot planted firmly on Earth. 😎

❄️ The Big Lesson

I’ve lived through enough ski seasons to know that summer dreams do not make January powder. But NOAA saying there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño is worth our attention.

So enjoy fall. Ride the bikes, take the kids to Big Bear and spend some time in Mammoth. Then keep one eye on that big blue Pacific, because maybe—just maybe—the winter we’ve been waiting for is starting to take shape thousands of miles away. 🌊➡️❄️

Get excited early. Make the call late.

Know a SoCal skier already predicting “EPIC POWDER!” in the group chat? Share this with them and start plotting your first ski day together. 🎿🌨️

– Sasha Everett ⛷️💦

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